Archive for June, 2010

Why Go to Space?

“Earth is the cradle of humanity, but one cannot live in a cradle forever.” – Konstantin Eduardovich Tsiolkovsky 1911

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The next fifty years will decide the future- and our actions, as well as our inactions, will reverberate through all time.

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Think about that for a moment. The universe is over thirteen billion years old and what we do in the next fifty years may well have a greater impact than anything that has ever happened up until now or ever will happen again.

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We are at a pivotal moment, not just for humanity but for life itself. At the very least, the only event that can match becoming a spacefaring life form is the very first life to evolve out of the primordial mud. If the unlikely is true and Earth is the singular cradle for life in the universe… then the only event that can match our move to space is the Big Bang itself.

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The Big Bang, life evolving and our diaspora to the stars- everything else before and after will be footnotes.

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Limiting our view to what going to space can do for Earth is as nonsensical as asking what Earth’s entire biosphere could ever do for that one little tidal pool where the first life form came into being almost four billion years ago.

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Going to space won’t be important because it can give Earth abundant, cheap and clean energy… but it will.

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It won’t be important because it can deliver strategic rare earth elements that are scarce down here, alleviating many of the driving forces for resource wars… even though it can do that to.

Accessing the 98% of our solar systems assets for use on on Earth won’t be important because it can step over the unreasoning terrors of the Malthusian Catastrophists  and allow the developed world to retain its standard of living while lifting billions of people out of poverty and war to join them… although it will be a wonderful side effect.

Deflecting a Torino 10 asteroid impact may save every human on Earth… but that is just holding off the inevitable if we don’t become a spacefaring species.

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Even though it will be wonderful, it won’t be important that it can fulfil the dreams of millions of people and inspire millions more to dream bigger and achieve more than they ever imagined possible.

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It also won’t be important because it can create trillion dollar companies that will pull the economy back up from the economic morass that government debt has us sinking into… even though the world’s first trillionaire won’t be made on our “world”.

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Going to space will be important for the hundreds of billions of our descendants that will grow to fill our solar system and eventually the stars. As important as going to space will be in the short term for a few billion people on Earth- if we become a spacefaring species, Earth will be called home for only a tiny fraction of humanity.

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We have the opportunity to influence how that begins. Does it begin in a spirit of adventure and peace? Does it begin with distrust, fear and war? Is it stifled with totalitarian control or will freedom grab the first hold? We have the chance now to directly effect how it starts- not “we” as in the government or humanity as a whole, I mean you the person who is reading this and I who am writing it.

Or will you turn our back on the Universe and try to make yourself comfortable in the cradle – hoping that someone else will do it and that it will turn out alright?

Watched the Rookie Blue Pilot

I was going to do a quick review of The Gates but I’ll put it off to talk about Rookie Blue. I bitch and moan about the Canadian networks not creating their own content so I will make an effort to take them seriously when they do.

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Because they don’t make as much money off creating original content as they do putting the shrinkwrap back on used American programs- Canadian networks have been loath to waste money on promoting their own shows. They are usually shoved out the door with no fanfare and this is quite often held up as a reason for their lack of ratings. Hell, no matter how good or bad they are, they aren’t going to find much of an audience if nobody even knows they exist.

I give Global all due respect this time out. They made a huge effort to promote the show and it will now have a chance to win or lose based on its own merits.

And what are those merits you ask? Well, even with one strike against it for being YACS – Yet Another Cop Show… closely related to the YADS and YALS with doctors and lawyers… you know, I think we are going to have to add another one for YAVS what with all the vampire shows (I will probably be getting back to The Gates)… but I digress… where was I?

Oh yeah, what are Rookie Blue’s merits?

First, don’t underestimate the likability of the very photogenic Missy Peregrym-

- the actress who portrays the main protagonist of the ensemble case, rookie officer Andy McNally.

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As cute as she is (and she is pretty damn cute i’n’t she?), the lady can act as well. Let me tell you, I got a part for her riiiiight here… ohhh yeahhhhh… as the female lead in Saving the Dead, a Lovecraftian redemptive horror I am writing on spec. She can deliver a real sense of vulnerability without coming across as overly weak – you want to step into the screen and go to her rescue.

In her big scene near the end as she walked out of the abandoned house with the young guy in cuffs- as she walks up to the camera I was reading pride, desperation for any sign of respect, fighting back tears from the aftermath of fear and adrenaline- all without a word. Very expressive.

I don’t mean to short the rest of the cast, they all do good work with some solid writing. Airing down in the US the quality and production values will not look out of place on ABC. After the initial first episode bump, I think it should settle in with solid numbers of around 6 million viewers in the US and just over a million viewers here in Canada… with a much stronger skew to the ladies than most cop shows.

Because this is not really a cop show for the guys. (The new cop show for us would be The Good Guys from Fox and re-wrapped here in Canada on Global.) There is no grit here and all the rookies are… soft?… sensitive?… oh so very “Grey’s Anatomy”?

This is the anti-Shield or anti-Wire and there is nothing wrong with that. Workplace dramas are all fantasy depictions of the jobs they portray- this one just happens to fit more with a feminine fantasy of the police world.

It is good to see another competently done television series that shows we can create here in Canada and not just do service work and buy American shows. I won’t be follow this show, not because there are any glaring faults in it like Scoundrels, but because I am not its intended audience.

Good luck Rookie.

Watched the Scoundrels Pilot

Since I want to write for television, I watch a lot of television. If there is a pilot coming on and I’m not actually repulsed by the premise, I will watch it. Last night there were two – Scoundrels and The Gates. I’ll write up on ABC’s Scoundrels first.

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There are some minor spoilers in here so consider yourself warned.

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If you are in the US, you can watch the pilot at ABC’s website- it is geoblocked here in Canada. In the Great White North the government is protecting CTV’s profits so you can watch the Scoundrels pilot on CTV as long as they keep it on their servers… then there are the not so legitimate websites that collect and serve.

It irks me that Canadian networks get the government to block American programs so that they can pretend that they are performing an actual service when they are simply functioning as parasites when they fly down to Las Angeles with suitcases full of money so that they don’t have to do the hard work of creating their own content.

Yes, the Canadian networks do create a little of their own stuff, the government won’t give them that lucrative cartel on American programming if they don’t… but I’ll rant about the state of Canadian regulations and network programming another time… okay, I’ll rant about it many, many other times- but right now I’ll get back to Scoundrels.

I didn’t like it.

Okay, the actors are good so the blame can shift from them. Virginia Madsen is always reliable and David James Elliott, especially toward the end of the pilot, shows that he can be a real prick when the part calls for it.

The problem for me was that the characters are not good people and they aren’t interesting of unique enough to get me to engage with them. When characters are actually bad people there has to be something about them that really grabs the audience’s attention or makes us empathize or sympathize with them – and the West family leaves me cold.

The only character on the show that was less likable than the Wests was the photographer who tried to roofie and rape Heather West… and all that happened to him was that she stole some pictures from him.

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She didn’t care in the least bit about all the girls this guy had done this to before and all the girls that he will do this to in the future. She got what she wanted and moved on with a smile and a clear conscience- to hell with everyone else.

And that sums up the sentiments of the whole family. There is no remorse or conscience in the lot of them, it is like the family unit is sociopathic. They may care about each other but everyone outside is there simply to be used. They resent that there are repercussions to their actions and they seem to find it inexcusable that the father is actually sent to prison for stealing, or that one son may do time for a home invasion.

The writers did try to build some empathy by having them exposit on the “West Code” where they don’t do violence and they don’t deal in drugs. One- this seems like an artificial construct that wouldn’t exist in the real world. Two- if you break into my home and steal what I have worked long and hard for- that you don’t break my arm while doing it does not make me like you. Three- the non-violent production and distribution of drugs is not morally wrong and a step up from stealing.

The series is supposed to be about Cheryl trying to get herself and her three children to pursue legal means of making a living now that Wolfgang, the father, is sent to prison… not because what they do is wrong but because she isn’t as good at stealing things as Wolfgang was and Cal is too dim-witted to take over. She is worried that more of her family will get caught and put in prison- that is her incentive to change.

That incentive is one of the purposes of the criminal justice system- to make the price they may pay for committing a crime great enough for it to replace the moral compass that some people are missing.There are a lot of real people like that and the world would be a better place without them.

If you want to build a show around characters that have twisted moral codes and who blithely prey on other people- It takes a very strong combination of writing and acting to get me to engage with those characters. It has worked before, and with characters who did far worse things than the Wests.

Tony I watched right through to the cut to black.

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A sociopath trying to play by our rules is interesting.

Hell, I actually have one series idea that takes place inside the world of art heists and another set in a boxing club that gets tied up with Russian organized crime… so I don’t have anything against writing in that world and with characters that are not good people… but it is not easy to make those characters relatable or empathetic.

In the sentiment of not breaking something if you can’t fix it:

It might have been better if Wolfgang West had been a more overtly vicious and domineering figure who had given them no choice in what they did- if he had used beatings, lies and threats to force the family to a life of crime they really didn’t want. Once he is sent to prison and could no longer get to them they would try to right their lives. They would have known no other life and would have to struggle to leave the world world of crime. There would also be the always looming threat of the eventual release of Wolfgang.

That show I might have been able to get behind. The one that actually got made loses its “Record All New” setting on my DVR.

PS. Kudos to Neal McDonough for sticking to his principals and getting fired for it. All he had to do to play Wolfgang was to make out with Virginian Madsen… and he’d be making a million dollars or more working on this show. Making out with Virginia Madsen is not an onerous task, I would do it for free as a matter of fact, but years ago Neal drew a line in the sand saying that he would not simulate sex on camera, that it is against his principals. He stuck by that and was replaced. I’m not saying David was wrong or that Neal was right in what they are willing to do- just that Neal should be commended for sticking to what he thought was right.

SpaceX Moving Faster Than Space Inc.

All the key components are coming along nicely in the real world to meet the needs of my fictional world. There is a chance that someone will step up and announce an actual asteroid retrieval mission before I have any chance of building the contacts and experience needed to shepherd my TV show Space Inc. through development.

SpaceX just announced a couple days ago that Iridium Communications has signed a contract with them for launch services in 2015 through 2017 to help put their next generation of satellites into orbit. At $492 million it is the largest private launch contract ever. Don’t think that SpaceX will be twiddling their thumbs and waiting for the next five years, they already have over 20 launches on their manifest ahead of the Iridium NEXT launches.

Since Iridium will be down to 72 satellites, shouldn’t it be rebranded as Hafnium?

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Anyhow, SpaceX is exactly what my fictional William Barron needs to launch the components and crew for his Pathbreaker spacecraft.

But this fictional mission needed another rocket that could move an asteroid and SpaceX is all about launching to orbit. While the Merlin engine could be repurposed to push Pathbreaker out to meet the asteroid- it is not suited to changing the delta V of something as massive as my fictional asteroid Vazquez-Koski – not enough to put it into Earth orbit.

Good thing that there is another rocket company working on that problem.

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 Ad Astra Rocket Company is developing what they call a VAriable Specific Impulse Magnetoplasma Rocket (VASIMR®) that is so weak it can’t even lift itself off the launch pad let alone anything to orbit. Which is exactly what I want because once a rocket like SpaceX’s Falcon 9 gets it off the planet, electric thrusters like the VASIMR can burn for months rather than minutes. As gentle a push as it has, a lot of velocity change can build up if you push for long enough. The potential for these ion rockets is looked at in a recent article in Aviation Week titled Ad Astra Ponders Vasimr Mission To Asteroid.

The author of that article, Mark Carreau, writes about the potential of the ion rockets for a mission to an asteroid and back… Mars as well but that is for season six. In season one, William Barron would be using several of these high efficiency rockets to push on the asteroid for months on end to shifts it into Earth orbit… that is, if he can beat the Chinese to the asteroid.

Once in orbit, the TV series would be working within the scenario that I wrote about two posts back in Space Inc. and the Unspillable… hey, I ain’t spoiling if it is the Chinese who are controlling this or the Americans via William Barron.

As much as I love writing, I just wish that after getting out of high school I had carried on with pursuing a degree in Aerospace Engineering like I had wanted to – before becoming disillusioned by the governments lethargic domination of the arena. Instead of just imagining it, I could be bending iron to actually make us a spacefaring civilisation.

Right now, SpaceX “Careers” page shows they are trying to find another 125 people.

Stay is school kids.

Dancing Ninja – CNN Covers Cannes

CNN posted this a month ago but I just saw it and had to comment- seeing as how the thumbnail showcases “Dancing Ninja” the first feature I worked on – as a DIT wayyyyy back in the fall of 2009. Yup, about the only entertainment coverage it got comes at 1:27 in this clip.

I was able to take “working with the Hoff” off of my bucket list.

If you were wondering how good it could possibly be… here is work in progress trailer that was put together using just the footage they shot in Korea before they came to Vancouver (almost a year later) to finish up the majority of it.

 

I may make fun of it but I had fun working on it and met some great people so I wish it well.

Space Inc. and the Unspillable

I’ve been saying it for years – hell, it is an integral part of Space Inc., the spec pilot I wrote for the dramatic television series set in the current civilian space race. Space based solar power could be the thing that takes us to space.

The news obsessing with the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico created an opportunity that someone at the National Space Society took advantage of to create a nice graphic to drive home a salient point.

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I found it on the NSS blog entry Space Solar Power is Unspillable and figured to pass it on… even though the “space solar is five times the power of Earth-based solar” line makes it look like the energy from the sun is five times greater in orbit than it is on Earth. In fact a clear sky at noon attenuates only about 25% of the solar energy.

That “clear” and “at noon” are where the power differential shows up.

There are only so many days without clouds, dust, volcanic ash, smoke, smog and fog… at least down here, up in GEO is is always sunny and cloudless. Well, not always sunny. The availability of the sun in GEO is actually more like 23/7 than 24/7… but that is a lot better than the losses incurred on the surface. Down here, the sun is only visible on average of 12/7 and that “12” varies from a best of about 75% at noon on down to that sunset/sunrise of <1% – as compared to the space based solar panel that gets 100% for all but the hour or so per day that it is in the Earth’s shadow.

It is the overall collectability of the energy that may be considered to be “five times” Earth-based solar- which is good but it still takes a pretty big array of solar panels to replace one of those fossil or fissile burning power plants- and big means heavy.

The cost of getting a kilogram on a GTO (Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit) is about $20,000 depending on what you launch with. Then you have to burn some of that mass to stabilize it into a GEO (Geostationary Earth Orbit) so that it remains properly positioned over the rectenna on the Earth’s surface.

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Space X is on target to cut that significantly with their Falcon 9. They are offering to put a 4,680 kg payload in a GTO for $51 million… or about half what it is with the various Ariane, Delta or Atlas rockets. Their Falcon 9 Heavy is being designed to launch 19,500 kg to a GTO and may well cut the costs in half yet again – maybe $5,000 per kilogram to GTO. The cost would also have an inverse relationship to the number of flights – so more launches would mean a lowering of that cost yet again.

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Even a reasonably optimistic forecast of $2,000 per kilogram would mean tens of billions of dollars when we are talking about launching the infrastructure for a space based solar array able to generate the 4GW that can come from a good sized coal or nuclear power plant.

The estimates for the weight of 4GW capable array of panels and the supporting infrastructure are quite preliminary but they start at about 4 million kilograms on the low end. If that was all launched from Earth, we’re looking at $40 billion which is not competitive with the $8 billion or so to get the same energy from nuclear power.

Now let’s look out five years to the Falcon 9 Heavy and it still takes over 200 launches and costs around $20 billion. I’m sure if I someone called up Elon and said they’d buy 200 launches they would get a discount… although it still wouldn’t be cost competitive.

But what happens when most of the material is already there and we just have to launch a couple dozen Falcon 9 Heavies to get the equipment up there to take advantage of it?

What if someone took that first step and went out to retrieve an asteroid into Earth orbit? An stony asteroid that is about 40 meters in diameter would come in at something like 150 million kilograms. They usually run 18% silicon so we’re looking at roughly 27 million kilograms of solar panel raw material. Fabricating that much silicon into solar panels and you could build six 4GW solar power satellites.

So if a mission like that could be done for $7 billion to go get the asteroid and another $30 billion to build the six powersats then we are talking the tipping point for space based solar power generation. Maybe the tipping point for becoming a space faring civilization because when that asteroid starts running low, there are thousands more NEAs where it came from… and the second one will be a lot cheaper than the first.

If you are willing to go to it and do the processing in situ before shipping the refined materials back, one near Earth asteroid call 1036 Ganymed (not Jupiter’s moon Ganymed) is about 32 kilometres in diameter. That is about 17,000 cubic kilometres of raw material massing 33,000,000,000,000,000 kg.

Since 1036 Ganymed is a S-type asteroid that 18% silicon means about  5,940,000,000,000,000 kg of raw silicon. With that one asteroid, we could build solar power satellites that generate millions of terawatts.

We won’t build million terawatt solar arrays any time soon because, even ignoring the cost of doing it, the entire planet only uses 15 terawatts right now.

Someone could make hundreds of billions of dollars giving the world cheap and abundant energy. This would allowing billions of people to lift themselves out of poverty and hardship to enjoy the standard of living that the developed nations rightfully don’t want to lose.

Or the governments can cap and trade the developed nations back down to join in the suffering of those billions in poverty and hardship – and without cheap energy, none of us will have a way to climb out of it.

 

Caveat lector, this is napkin engineering and is not meant to be a definitive set of calculations that can be taken to the bank to get a loan for $7 billion to go capture 40 metre nickel-iron asteroid – but it is meant to spark interest in those who can spend the millions of dollars it would take to do the definitive calculations that can then be taken to the bank for that $7 billion loan.

Despair May Be A Sin…

…but it is often hilarious.

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Seriously folks, we really shouldn’t be filled with so my angst and woe. Every pundit, politician and activist seems to be carrying around the same sign- sure it sells their books, gets them voted into office and makes them feel like they’re saving the world… but they are wrong.

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We need to stop every once and a while and remind ourselves that never in human history has humanity had it better than we do now and despite the way over-hyped but news selling negatives, our succeeding generation has a strong probability of living in an even better world.

The world we wring our hands over today would seem pretty fantastic to time travellers from fifty years ago, amazing to those from a hundred years ago and an unimaginable utopia to visitors from 150 years ago… as long as they actually looked around rather than read all the doom and gloom.

Sure there are still great wrongs in need of righting and there are real dangers to be faced- but I truly wish that, every once in a while, folks would revel in the positive rather than wallow in the negative.

In pursuit of that, I’ve written a pilot on spec that is set in the current civilian space race where, instead of building the spine of the show around stopping a looming negative, I set them a magnificent positive goal and then let the villains get in the way.

It will be a tougher sell to the executive suite than one wrapped in the status quo narrative of setting them up as being on a desperate mission to save a dying earth.

BUT I also think that there is a massive, pent up need for a show like this. I look around at the slate of dramas and I see nothing but show after show that are constructed entirely around the negative. The goals are to stop something bad from happening… and that is it.

Stop the bomb from going off, stop the serial killer, stop the Hellmouth from opening, stop the disease from killing the patient, stop the aliens from taking over the earth, stop the terrorist from assassinating the president, stop the devil from bringing on Armageddon, stop the smoke monster from tricking someone into pulling the island’s butt plug – it seems that the only pro-active people out there are the villains.

I’m not saying that those shows are not great; how desolate would the dial have been without Jack, Buffy and the Winchester boys? I’m just saying that it would be nice for once to have the villains playing catch-up.

Falcon 9 Makes Orbit

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YES! As I write this, SpaceX has just made orbit with their first flight test of the Falcon 9 rocket system. After an earlier auto-abort at about T -1 second, they cleared the automatically triggered hold and went on to a flawless second run before today’s launch window closed.

Besides creating a private low cost to orbit rocket system for anyone, Elon Musk plans to be in the front running to replace the retiring Space Shuttle for delivery of cargo, and eventually crew, to the International Space Station.

Me, I want to hire them to launch the components to a crewed asteroid intercept, retrieval to L-5 and mining operation. If they meet their target $/kg then they will cut the mission cost from about $9 billion to only $7 billion to retrieve a few thousand tons of NiFe to earth orbit where it would be worth at least ten time that.

Now all I have to do is raise $7 billion.

I’m thinking of putting a “donate” button on the sidebar for you to click.