Archive for the ‘Distribution’ Category

Pirates – Start Your Encoders

There are several factors needed to create an environment where media piracy for financial gain is innevitable.
1.Demand for a product.
2.Financial barrier to official entry for most people.
3.An artificial level of hassle and complexity for those who can afford it.
4.An arrogant and antagonistic official provider to lower inhibitions against piracy.
5.A moderate level of difficulty to keep casual piracy low.
Read on to see how the studios and tech companies are meeting or exceeding them all.

1.The tech companies have been pushing the superior quality of High Definition for years and when the Blu-Ray and HD-DVD units become available they will spend tens of millions more trying to convince people that they need this. The television networks have been running “available in HD” tattooed over most of their programs for several years now and the film studios will in turn spend tens of millions trying to convince the consumer that they need to replace their DVD library with the new and improved HD content. All in all, they will spend upwards of a hundred million dollars trying to drive up demand for HD content.
2.The players are set to start at around $1000 and the studios will want a premium over their already available DVD content. Add to this the additional $1000 that the customers will need to spend for the lowest HD ready television able to work with the player and the barrier to entry is rapidly rising out of the reach of most people. Computers and displays that would be entirely acceptable from a technological perspective will be shut out in the draconian rights management schemes.
3.It isn’t just the cost of a Blu-Ray or HD-DVD ready television. The digital rights management used requires that the players will only send an HD signal to displays on a “trusted list”. Most every display already available, including many costing tens of thousands of dollars, will not be allowed to show a high definition image. On top of this insult, the DRM technology will allow them to strike any display or player from their trusted list so that discs will no longer play in certain players or deliver signals to specific displays. So first you will have to replace a perfectly good television with one that is trusted… and then you may have to replace that one when it is compromised by some script kiddie in Norway. Add to this the high probability that the technology will have glitches due to this DRM overhead. The region codes with DVD are far simpler and they that have a reputation of unreliability.
4.The studios start by treating everyone as thieves, liars and cheats… a they will turn around and charge a several dollar premium over DVDs when their actual cost premium will only be a few cents more. DVDs and CDs set this precedent since they cost considerably less to produce/ship/store/display than VHS tapes or LP records – but the studios and record companies charged the end user considerably more. The film industry has been considerably better than the music industry here but it looks like that will change with the HD discs. I’m a capitalist pig and so I will accept that this is the way they work… but a lot of people will take offense to the film industry using the situation to take advantage of them. Combine that with the collectors who have large libraries of content that they’ve already paid for and who feel that should count for something. I’m not in that camp, but a lot of people will think “I’ve already paid for every season of Saved by the Bell, why should I pay for it again?” I, on the other hand, will be buying the Complete Buffy in HD as soon as I can. What can I say, I’m weak.
5.The easiest and most straight forward method of pirating HD content is using one of the new pro-sumer HD cameras to simply record the image off of a trusted system. This places a $3000 to $6000 barrier in the way of casual copying. I am assuming that the DRM scheme will be cracked within days if not hours, but for the sake of argument let’s pretend that they have discovered a magic anti-piracy method that cannot be foiled. As long as we can see the content, then a video camera can see it as well. The absolute worst that the media owners and the hardware creators can do is slow it down to real time content copying. The most likely scenario sees the hackers modifying hardware to allow copying… but this leaves a technological as well a monetary barrier to the casual copy being made. Either way ensures that the dedicated pirates have the market pretty much to themselves.
They’ve pretty much covered every point and I can’t really think of any way to make it a more ideal environment for pirates.

PSPCasting

Podcasting has become a serious distribution arena for radio style shows. What we have with the Sony PSP is a device that can take that to the next level with video. Sony originally expected to sell about 800,000 units per month but after only a few days of phenominal sales, they have upped production to 2,000,000 units per month.

Two freakin’ million. Every month. Even if they don’t get close to that… maybe they barely top a million per month, that is still a lot of devices. Polishing the old crystal ball tells me that there will be 19,379,412 PSPs sold by 10:31 AM, March 27th of 2006.(damn thing still refuses to give me lottery tickets, stock tips or winning horses though)

I’m thinking that a free pilot and then $1 per 20 minute episode or $15 to subscribe to a 20 episode season is a work able b-plan. Give it a few years and we have a lot of potential viewers and while there are ten year old and fifty year old gamers bracketing the core, that core is still the advertiser coveted 18-34 males who have fled television of late.

While intrusive commercials would work, it would make more sense to use sponsership and product placement. The advertising industry has to grok that viewing habits are changing and trying to force your audience to watch old school commercials is a lose lose proposition. They fear anything other than stone age broadcasting and are throwing lawyers at anyone who tries to move into the bronze age of PVRs and filesharing.

Advertisers have to look at integrating their ad into the show in a nonintrusive way. With that done, it shouldn’t bother them that the files are shared.

Now all we need are the tools for setting up a virtual television network.

WebTV GreenStreaming

I’ve written a script for the WebTV class that is meant for distribution over the Internet (hence the WebTV label). It will be encoded in a streaming format and in all likelihood will end up at a quarter the resolution it was shot at and compressed to the edge of watchability.
To get quality streaming video requires some serious broadband access. Using the latest encoding schemes from Microsoft or DivX, you can squeeze a DV film into about one megabit per second (mbps). Dial up access to the Internet is about 0.05 mbps so there ain’t no way that’s happening short of dark magics… and the last time I tried that I barely got away with my soul (and there’s a certain demon that still owes me a hundred bucks- you listening Aeshma?).
Back on topic, where was I… Aeshma.. black magic.. dial up.. oh yeah DV quality video at one mbps. If you have a good broadband DSL, cable or satellite connection to the Internet you can actually use this. There are two problems here. One is that pretty much every connection to the Internet is a bit flaky and you’re lucky if you can sustain this high throughput for the duration of a one hour show. Two, there are still a lot of people in the .25 to 1 mbps range who would be out of luck. And thir- okay, there are three problems here. Thirdly is the fact that DV is the bottom rung of the quality ladder.
HDTVs two most used resolutions are 1280×720 which needs at least 2 mbps, and 1920×1080 which needs at least 3.5 mbps. It is going to be a few years yet before many people can get reliable 3.5 mbps Internet access.
This got me thinking on ways to maximize the quality of streaming video for the huge number of people who have at least .25 mbps access. Since I’m also looking into things like compositing, 3D animation, game modding and machinima, I hit on the idea of “greenstreaming”. This is an adaptation of chromakeying/greenscreening for the optimization of video delivery.
The upcoming release of Doom III shows what kind of quality we can expect from realtime animation on the computer. What I think should be developed off of such a game engine is a movie creation and viewing platform. Not just machinima, but a combination of live action composited into machinima. If you were to build a virtual set and have the actors work in front of a green screen, you could erase all the data from the video except for the actors themselves and cut down on the bandwidth needed by roughly 75% (back of the napkin calculator used here).
The viewer would have the entire set on their computer, so the streaming signal would consist of the actors, any unique 3D model elements, lighting information such as time of day and if the lights are turned on – and camera motion.
Camera motion would be a tricky element. You would need to track the motion of the camera on the real set and send that data to the viewing program so that the virtual camera can move through the virtual set in sync with the live action camera.
A DV quality stream could actually be sent at around .25 mbps while the two HDTV resolutions might get by with .5 mbps and .875 mbps respectively. This all fits into an access envelope that today encompasses more than 40 million people in North America alone. That seems like a good sized market to me.
There are drawbacks of course. The viewer would have to have the program and the virtual set on their computer and that is a barrier to entry. For it to be a rich environment, you’d probably end up with at least 500 MB of data to download. The highest quality game engine to base the viewer program on is probably the one that Id Software has developed for Doom III and the license for that would probably be around half a million dollars so the viewing software would have to be sold unless it was subsidized.
Along with the wicked game engine comes wicked hardware requirements… but that is only by todays standards. A year from now, todays fast game rigs will be middle of the road systems and the year after that they will be entry level stuff. As well, the game engines degrade gracefully depending on your hardware. If you have a high end VoodooPC, you are going to get the most out of the video but if you are using a yeoman Dell system you will get less detail, simpler lighting and more jagged graphics… but you’d still get the picture.
(Hey Carmack, how about tweaking the next engine for a more cinematic work? An optimized setting that works at 24 fps with a modicum of motion blur, depth of field blur and more control over the “camera” would lead to some sweet machinima even if my greenstreaming idea isn’t embraced.)
The benefits for all parties involved are clear though. The end viewer gets an image of much higher quality than they could otherwise get. The makers of the game engine could have another revenue stream. The companies that host and stream the video could deliver four times as much content over their existing infrastructure. The content providers wouldn’t have to put up with the severe degradation of their product just to get it out there.
And is it my imagination or are my blog entries looking more like articles? I think that may be the way I’m going with this but I should probably put a few more interstitial postings that are short and sweet so that the blog isn’t quite so… heavy.