There are several factors needed to create an environment where media piracy for financial gain is innevitable.
1.Demand for a product.
2.Financial barrier to official entry for most people.
3.An artificial level of hassle and complexity for those who can afford it.
4.An arrogant and antagonistic official provider to lower inhibitions against piracy.
5.A moderate level of difficulty to keep casual piracy low.
Read on to see how the studios and tech companies are meeting or exceeding them all.
1.The tech companies have been pushing the superior quality of High Definition for years and when the Blu-Ray and HD-DVD units become available they will spend tens of millions more trying to convince people that they need this. The television networks have been running “available in HD” tattooed over most of their programs for several years now and the film studios will in turn spend tens of millions trying to convince the consumer that they need to replace their DVD library with the new and improved HD content. All in all, they will spend upwards of a hundred million dollars trying to drive up demand for HD content.
2.The players are set to start at around $1000 and the studios will want a premium over their already available DVD content. Add to this the additional $1000 that the customers will need to spend for the lowest HD ready television able to work with the player and the barrier to entry is rapidly rising out of the reach of most people. Computers and displays that would be entirely acceptable from a technological perspective will be shut out in the draconian rights management schemes.
3.It isn’t just the cost of a Blu-Ray or HD-DVD ready television. The digital rights management used requires that the players will only send an HD signal to displays on a “trusted list”. Most every display already available, including many costing tens of thousands of dollars, will not be allowed to show a high definition image. On top of this insult, the DRM technology will allow them to strike any display or player from their trusted list so that discs will no longer play in certain players or deliver signals to specific displays. So first you will have to replace a perfectly good television with one that is trusted… and then you may have to replace that one when it is compromised by some script kiddie in Norway. Add to this the high probability that the technology will have glitches due to this DRM overhead. The region codes with DVD are far simpler and they that have a reputation of unreliability.
4.The studios start by treating everyone as thieves, liars and cheats… a they will turn around and charge a several dollar premium over DVDs when their actual cost premium will only be a few cents more. DVDs and CDs set this precedent since they cost considerably less to produce/ship/store/display than VHS tapes or LP records – but the studios and record companies charged the end user considerably more. The film industry has been considerably better than the music industry here but it looks like that will change with the HD discs. I’m a capitalist pig and so I will accept that this is the way they work… but a lot of people will take offense to the film industry using the situation to take advantage of them. Combine that with the collectors who have large libraries of content that they’ve already paid for and who feel that should count for something. I’m not in that camp, but a lot of people will think “I’ve already paid for every season of Saved by the Bell, why should I pay for it again?” I, on the other hand, will be buying the Complete Buffy in HD as soon as I can. What can I say, I’m weak.
5.The easiest and most straight forward method of pirating HD content is using one of the new pro-sumer HD cameras to simply record the image off of a trusted system. This places a $3000 to $6000 barrier in the way of casual copying. I am assuming that the DRM scheme will be cracked within days if not hours, but for the sake of argument let’s pretend that they have discovered a magic anti-piracy method that cannot be foiled. As long as we can see the content, then a video camera can see it as well. The absolute worst that the media owners and the hardware creators can do is slow it down to real time content copying. The most likely scenario sees the hackers modifying hardware to allow copying… but this leaves a technological as well a monetary barrier to the casual copy being made. Either way ensures that the dedicated pirates have the market pretty much to themselves.
They’ve pretty much covered every point and I can’t really think of any way to make it a more ideal environment for pirates.
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October 14th, 2005
Clint
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