One of the most blogs that I follow consistently is Dar Kush. Steve Barnes is a damn fine sci-fi writer (If my Space Inc. TV series ever gets off the ground, I’ll champion him for the writing staff) and while we differ in a lot of our conclusions, he is smart and articulate and that all adds up to a place I can go that challenges my ideas and gives me an alternative perspective from a voice I like and respect.
One of the side effects is that on occasion I leave long and meandering rants comments on his site. Since I am trying to populate this website with all things Clint, I figured that I would cross post the comments here as well.
If you want to see the full context, you will want to read “A Modest Proposal” but I think that the embedded quotes give this passing context.
"Follow the money…or show me another motivation as strong…or show me why environmentalists are more corruptible than corporatists."
It isn’t just money that can corrupt a person. Our self image is a powerful force and if our sense of self worth comes from what we do… then there is nothing bigger than saving the world. There is an awfully big stumbling block if the world doesn’t actually need saving.
From what I can see, the global temperatures have been climbing slowly and fitfully ever since the last ice age. There may well be an anthropogenic modifier to that over the last couple hundred years – and if there is, that may be a bad thing. One or both of those may also be incorrect. What I think does have a high probability is that some significant number of those AGW evangelists have surely tied their own sense of value to AGW being true and that it will result in unmitigated disaster. They have dedicated their life to this cause and would find it very painful to even contemplate that we may not be a significant climate modifier, or if we are, that the modifications will have a net benefit to life on this planet. Amongst the scientists this psychological drive to make a difference in the world may well outweigh the financial incentive by a solid margin. Amongst the activists I would guess that it is almost the entire driving force.
"The worst case scenario for limiting population to two children per couple is some disappointed people, and a growth of government (bad)."
Actually, I think that the worst case scenario for state mandated limits to child bearing involves negative eugenics on a massive scale. We don’t yet have the ability to manipulate DNA to custom build a child for anyone, but we do have relatively inexpensive DNA testing; so while the doctors can’t guarantee to create a "perfect" baby, they can find out if there is any traits in a child that the parent(s) might find undesirable. What do you think would happen if they offered a reasonably good marker for… say the three to five percent of the population that is gay? Or short? Or predisposed to obesity?
A solid economic system that gives a high standard of living to the majority of the population seems to be the best way to get a population to voluntarily limit the number of children they have to below the replacement level. A lower mortality rate also tracks with lower birth rate so that may be a utilitarian argument for socialized medicine in developing countries. That socio-economic system most amenable to all this seems to be capitalism moderated by a democratic government… but we have to limit the government so that it doesn’t follow its natural tendency to degenerate into a system of selling favour to big business and running up a massive deficit in a race to buy votes.
"1) Increase the world-wide education and freedom of women. A core means of population control.
2) Shifting to sustainable energies as opposed to petroleum, which keeps us vulnerable to Mid-east politics, and confuses our reasons to involve ourselves in wars in that region. There are probably very good reasons to have invaded Iraq. But no one can argue that many of the people making those decisions also had financial interests, direct or indirect, in the oil industry. Wouldn’t it have been nice to have greater clarity, without the potential corruption of mega-bucks?
3) Investment in various energy-saving technologies. Clearly a growth industry world-wide. Why shouldn’t America get ahead of this? "
Hey, I’m all for #1 up there. As a libertarian, I abhor the fact that half the world population is treated as second class citizens. As a pragmatist I find it ludicrous that half the intellectual capital of the planet it being suppressed.
Now things get a little more complicated when we get to #2. Yes, buying oil from the Middle East does keep us vulnerable and confuses us. Oil is also the least expensive means to store and transport energy that we have yet to find – by a wide margin. It is also about the only source of money for people in those regions. Any other source of energy would mean more expensive… well… everything. We are still heading into the Great Depression 2.0, do you really think we can afford that? And while the standard of living for many in the Middle East is not high compared to ours – what effect to you think it would have if we managed to cut off almost the entirety of their income? That would be a pretty serious downside to several hundred million people.
I say we curtail our interference in the Middle East as much as possible, even though many there would see the pursuit of the above #1 as a gross interference. We let the price of oil move as the market demands; due to increasing expense of extraction, it would eventually rise to the point where other energy storage mediums become cost effective.
Here is where I come down on the #3 above – There would be no need for government regulation on price – with one faction fighting to regulate it higher while another fights to keep it down… both thinking themselves on the side of the angels and both not having a clue as to what effect it will actually have on the poor or the rich. There would also be no need for the government to pick technological winners (their record in that arena being rather abysmal) since the market incentives will eventually draw a myriad of industry backed technological ventures out of the labs.
"Why shouldn’t America get ahead of this?" Because in the thirty years that it will take for oil to lose its crown as the most effective energy storage system, the government will spend hundreds of billions of dollars dragging technologies out of the lab before they are actually needed or cost effective.
When you are talking about something as complex as the Terrestrial system, there is very little that is clear or simple.
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February 15th, 2010
Clint
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