I’ve given the situation a few weeks to settle out a little… I also needed time, once the movie I was working on (Gravity’s Pull) wrapped, to observe and analyze.

The key thing I’ve noted is that the media tends to treat Egypt’s political machine and Egypt’s Military machine as if they were two separate things. Like almost every person of power and influence in Egyptian politics, Mubarak came from the military- an officer in the Egyptian Air Force in his case.

His temporary replacement was Vice President Omar Suleiman who was director of the Egyptian General Intelligence Directorate and before that he was an officer in the Military’s Intelligence branch.

Today, he let everyone know that they had passed all authority to the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces. In Egypt, the Sultan rules at the suffrage of the Mamluk.

I am sure that Mubarak wanted the military to crush the protestors but was politely turned down and convinced to accept an alternative proposal, that it was in Mubarak’s best interests to hand over the reins of power, probably with a guarantee that he, his family and his wealth will be kept from prosecution and repatriation. I am not so sure that they will follow through on that though, he has systematically stripped tens of billions of dollars from the Egyptian people through graft, kickbacks and flat out redirection of state resources; there will be much hue and cry to bring him and his family to justice. Not to mention that $50 plus billion will help repair some of the economic damage that these last few weeks have dealt the country.

Now, the real worry is for what elections will bring. Many in the west seem to think that a democratic election is all that is needed for a better political system when in reality, people can quite easily vote themselves into subjugation and crushing poverty. A free and democratic election is necessary for a political system that enhances freedom, but it is by no means sufficient.

The best case scenario is the military finds their own Atatürk who will found a secular government that ushers in social and market freedoms. If this person manages to win a clear majority of the votes in an election that is marred by no more charges of corruption than is usual in a fledgling democracy… Egypt will be markedly better off five years from now. I give this about a ten percent chance.

The more likely scenario is a candidate who promises to take Egypt down the vote purchasing path that is dragging most of the developed world economies to a standstill. Europe and North America have a century of economic growth from capitalism to feed off of while Egypt may try to go straight to the bankrupting debt and economy stifling interventionism that can buy the next election. They will promise to create jobs, build a welfare state and institute labour reform along with a free unicorn in every garage- while telling everyone that nationalizing major industry will pay for it all. This will leave them worse off by any measure except by the media yardstick of believing no ill of any political party that embraces social democratic rhetoric. This one I give something like a sixty percent chance.

The worst case scenario involves the ascendancy of a religious party backed by the Muslim Brotherhood that institutes Shariah law and drags Egypt back into the dark ages. They have been treading carefully, not trying to take too much credit for what has happened and saying that they will not field a candidate for the presidential race… but fielding a candidate and backing a puppet are much the same thing in deed if not word.

Though I am an atheist, this is most definitely not an attack on Islam as a religion. Make no mistake, I think Islam is every bit as dangerous and silly an idea as any other religion… it is just that in the case of politics, the danger stems from power mongers creating tyranny behind the shield of Islam. There is no worse enemy of Islam than the power hungry individuals who wrap themselves in religion as they use it to their own personal ends. If you care about your religion, keep it as far from the halls of politics as you can; for if the temple is the house of god on earth- the capital is the house of the devil. Voting for a religion based political party will give Egypt a crushed economy and a jackboot on their neck. I give this outcome about a thirty percent chance – and if they vote this way in their first free election it will be their last free election for a long time.

There is still a slim chance that things will get better for Egypt and I really hope that there are those with the foresight and will to make it so.

…and a stupid metric to base your world view on. You don’t run any faster by hobbling your team mates.

Complaining about the gap between the so called “haves” and “have-nots” is a gross distortion of reality, mean spirited and rooted in jealousy and greed. The prevailing attitude in this clique is that it isn’t about your lot in life, it is all about the fact that someone, somewhere, is doing better than you… and that should piss you off.

This is not a zero sum competition where Paul Allen having two mega yachts somehow means that the poor are the worse for it. It means that thousands of people worked for years to create the Octopus and the Tatoosh and another hundred or so people have full time employment on crewing and maintaining them. The quarter of a billion dollars that went into their construction and the million a week to keep them going is extravagant but that money is spreading out in a net to the rest of the world.

Besides which, Paul Allen is one of the early signatories to Bill Gates’ The Giving Pledge where he and a few dozen others have agreed to give away half of their wealth to philanthropic causes.

Don’t let the mind boggling luxury that some small percentage of the worlds population lives in blind you to the fact that almost everywhere else on the planet, people live significantly better lives than their parents or grandparents.

Technology, democracy and capitalism has lifted the health and wealth of the entire planet and only the very worst places today are as bad as the very best places of two hundred years ago.

There are places in the world right now where people live in abject poverty and suffer under an average life span of less than forty years… which was called “normal” for nearly everyone up until the industrial revolution. We should do our best to help the world’s poor embrace the technology, democracy and capitalism that has lifted the rest of the world out of that sorry condition.

The greed and envy that drives so many people to focus on the gap is not productive and it most certainly doesn’t help the poor and unhealthy of the world. The fact that Bill Gates can avail himself of the very best health care that the planet has to offer, and that he can live at a level of comfort and luxury that few people can even imagine does not make the harsh life of an orphan in Haiti any harsher.

But that wealth might allow the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation to find a cure for malaria or cholera and make that orphan’s life a hell of a lot better.

Really, the needs and desires of the wealthy countries is the primary driving force for the increasing standard of living for the worlds poor- it is that very gap that is dragging the poorer countries up along with the wealthy countries. If the gap were bigger, the poor countries would be pulled along faster.

The socio-economic capital spent concentrating on that gap isn’t about helping the poor, it is about punishing the rich even if it is at the expense of the poor. I find that sentiment sad, bitter and empty.

The video embedded below shows that two hundred years ago the world lived with a much smaller gap between countries- we were all “have-nots” who lived in poverty- and then only for about forty years. We now have a much bigger spread between the rich and the poor… but the poor are almost all better off than even the very best from two hundred years ago.

It takes generations to move countries from the lower left to the upper right on this chart and it is admirable to help them as much as we can; but it is a nasty and irrational thing to attack any that have actually made it up and over.

We should celebrate our wealth and revel in our high standard of living while we do our best to help the developing world join us. Cheap energy is the only thing that will allow that and I am afraid most “green” energy is so expensive that it will stall billions of people in poverty for the next two generations.